The once
tough-to-treat liver infection hepatitis C could become a
rare disease in the United States in the next two decades, a
new study estimates. Hepatitis C, a viral infection that
harms the liver, is usually passed through infected blood.
For most people, the infection becomes chronic and it can
eventually lead to scarring of the liver (cirrhosis) or
liver cancer. U.S. health officials estimate that over 3
million Americans currently have chronic hepatitis C -- most
of whom don't know it because the infection usually causes
no symptoms. But with recent treatment advances, hepatitis C
could become rare by 2036, researchers report. "Rare" refers
to a disease that affects one in 1,500 people at most, said
senior researcher. Right now, around one in 100 Americans
has chronic hepatitis C. But that could quickly shift, since
new drugs are changing the landscape of hepatitis C
treatment, according to research team. "We're in the middle
of a very interesting time for hepatitis C patients," senior
researcher said. For decades, the only treatment for the
disease involved the drug interferon -- which had to be
injected and taken for up to a year. It also often caused
fatigue and flu-like side effects. After all that, the cure
rate was only 40 percent to 50 percent, according to the
U.S. Food and Drug Administration. But in just the past few
years, new drugs have been approved and more are on the way,
he added. One is sofosbuvir, a pill the FDA approved last
December. The treatment lasts just 12 weeks, with no need
for interferon injections. "There are highly effective drugs
becoming available, with a shorter duration of treatment,"
he said. "So, patients should be more amenable to taking
them." For the new study, research team used a computer
model to estimate the future effects of both hepatitis C
screening and new drug regimens. The researchers predict
that within the next 22 years, hepatitis C could become
rare. What's more, nearly 79,000 cases of liver cancer, over
124,000 cases of cirrhosis and 126,500 deaths could be
averted by 2050. The obstacle in all of this is money.
Sofosbuvir costs $1,000 a day, or $84,000 for the typical
12-week course. Research team also looked at what could
happen if all Americans -- not just baby boomers -- got a
one-time hepatitis C screening test. They say that would
nearly double the number of cases detected in the next
decade -- from 487,000 to almost 934,000. What the study
does not address, researcher said, is costs. He said more
research is needed to see whether the costs of screening and
treatment could be offset by the reduction in liver disease
and liver transplants. |